it ain't over till it's over...

last friday’s end-of-the-week bullish festivities failed to endure past the european markets’ close, and couldn’t even reach a level lofty enough to allow thursday morning’s longs the opportunity to escape at break-even, before the es began it’s daily swoon. after all was said and done, the spx was still trapped in the ~40pt trading range that had defined the market for the past +1 month. emerging markets re-emerged and displayed very good relative strength as money rotated out of past over-performers (bio-techs-naz and momentum stocks-rut) into past under-performers (EEM). the yield curve continued to flatten and credit spreads widened as the market discounted yellen’s and others, hawkish comments. once again, internals were mixed, with bearish p/c ratios and breadth, juxtaposed against a benign and bullish $vix. after settling the week midway between the weekly S1 and the weekly pivot, the market appeared to be waiting for long-term traders at-the-margin to finish weighing their options before stepping in full force. relatively low vix and skew readings indicated an unreasonably complacent mood in the market, although a $2.8BB put position was executed last week - so someone was concerned about downside tail risk. the market had taken on the visage of an aging fighter who had absorbed an inordinate amount of blows to the head and body, yet still remained standing; willing, but not as eager as he once was, to continue fighting. of course, the market couldn't stay in the current trading range indefinitely; some endogenous or exogenous event had to cause the threshold to be breached, so that the market could make it' move away from current value. perhaps the fix was in, but somebody was betting a lot money, that an overextended and beaten down mr. market, would finally utter no mas on his way to a hard landing on the canvas. but like it has , so often, the past 5 years, the market summoned up it's courage and strength and rallied once again, forging new historical highs. it was a comeback that many had thought to be unattainable; and in it's aftermath, there were the usual accusations that the fight was "rigged". mainstream media denied the rumors and in another classic example of hyperbolic hypocrisy, the game's biggest promoter denounced the practice and announced it was getting out of the game. or as the boys at goldman would say, timing's everything.