THE VOICE OF TRADESTRONG MANAGEMENT

Sunday, November 20, 2011

LIQUIDITY SHOCK

Futures exchanges and stock exchanges were created to justify separate economic needs yet both have been called into question as to whether a genuine service was being provided, or if the exchanges and traders were just redistributing the wealth for the benefit of themselves. Commodity futures exchanges were intended to be a venue for price discovery, risk transference, and price speculation, while stock exchanges were developed as a source for raising capital for extant companies and a co-location for investors who wished to share in the profits of these companies. In both marketplaces, customer orders flowed into the exchanges, where liquidity was provided by market-makers, fair value was determined, and price information flowed back to the customers almost simultaneously. Competition among the MMs resulted in narrow spreads and deep markets, which resulted in efficient price discovery.

Decimalization eliminated the majority of market makers willing to provide liquidity in the equity arena, while  the end of open-outcry and the migration to electronic trading, eliminated futures market makers. The majority of liquidity is now being supplied by unregulated high-frequency traders, who according to the TABB Group, are responsible for 56 percent of the NYSE’s volume (includes proprietary trading shops, market makers, and HFT hedge funds), while institutional traders comprise 17 percent (mutual funds, pensions, asset managers), hedge funds-15%, and retail-11%. In an Orwellian twist of fate, the business model of the stock exchanges may have been permanently altered as a result of the exchanges going public. Now driven by their own shareholders’ need for returns, capital formation appears to taken a back seat, as the exchanges roll out new technology to attract even more high frequency traders.

Investors have yet to return in full force since the “flash crash”, leaving the market vulnerable to the machinations of the algo-bots, indexers and other short time-frame traders.  In 1960 the average holding period for stocks was 8 years, in 1970-5yrs., 1980-33 mos., 1990-26 mos., 2000-14 mos., 2010-6mos, and in 2011 just a little over 2 mos ( NYSE Factbook). In addition, markets have become fragmented. Mary Shapiro admitted, as little as five years ago, the NYSE executed nearly 80 percent of volume in listed stocks. Today, the NYSE executes approximately 26 percent of the volume in its listed stocks. The remaining volume is split among more than 10 public exchanges, more than 30 dark pools, and more than 200 internalizing broker-dealers. 30 percent of volume in U.S.-listed equities is executed in venues that do not display their liquidity or make it generally available to the public.

The trader initiating a transaction is said to demand liquidity and the opposite side of the trade supplies liquidity. Liquidity demanders place market orders and pay the spread, and liquidity suppliers place limit orders and earn the spread. The algorithms that drive high frequency trading respond quickly to order flow and price . Quotes are revised in response to trading, and trading is done in response to changes in quotes, giving rise to a two‐way dynamic relationship.

Algos can easily take into account common factor price information and adjust trading and quoting accordingly, moving away or cancelling existing bids and offers. Other algos are designed to identify order flow and other information patterns in the data and react in the same way or shut down altogether. Liquidity demanders will wait until the supply of liquidity is ample, therefore, volatility is more often a result of liquidity being pulled by suppliers e.g., the flash crash, than an increase in buying or selling that demands liquidity.

Markets tend to function well when a sufficient number of diverse investors interact (liquid markets), and they tend to become fragile when this diversity breaks down (illiquid markets). In an illiquid market weak hands will act in concert, and take the same position based on the observations of others; independent of their own. This of course, leaves them vulnerable to getting blindsided by predatory traders and parasitic algorithms. The attendant volatility and velocity of current moves, along with the absence of follow-through, is evidence of this phenomena. In spite of the Fed’s almost daily injections of liquidity, headline risk regarding sovereign debt spreads continues to embolden the strong hands to pull liquidity when they sense the timing to be advantageous. The bulls have stepped up to the plate and continue to bring the market back each time, like a game of Pong, but professional money is still short. They continue to blame the volatility on Euro-uncertainty, but it is simply the flag of convenience under which they sail, and the corollary of their self-interest and bias. It also the reason why they will continue to do it.

Market structure continues to evolve at a rapid pace while traditional market practices quickly disappear. Obligations to provide liquidity and restrictions prohibiting practices that would disrupt market stability are disappearing, which gives rise to some very relevant questions.

Is the market more (evolving)or less (devolving) efficient now?

Is high volatility caused by a lack of liquidity, or is the lack of liquidity caused by high volatility?

Does higher volume mean greater liquidity?

What happens when HFTs make up 80% or 90% of the volume?

What happens if the market continues to fragment?

Should liquidity providers be allowed to pull liquidity completely?

Is attendant volume still valid as a metric of price action?

What happens when the average holding time for stocks is a a day?

Should there be a transaction Tax for HFTs?

What does the increased velocity of price moves mean for price discovery and market stability?

Is price discovery nothing more than a negative feedback loop?

Are the major equity indices just a de facto measure of the money supply?

Is the Volker rule to be blamed?

Monday, October 24, 2011

Dreamers& Schemers

Anyway, no drug, not even alcohol, causes the fundamental ills of society. If we're looking for the source of our troubles, we shouldn't test people for drugs, we should test them for stupidity, ignorance, greed and love of power. P.J. O’rourke

It was rollover and I was standing close to the center of the bond pit so that I would have access to both the spread paper and 2nd month brokers, when Darrell Zimmerman walked up to me. The bond market was experiencing a brief respite from it’s usual frenzied trading activity and Darrell had taken the opportunity to come by and talk to me. He informed me that he was working with some large institutional traders in New York and overseas, and that they were going to be trading some size in the 30 year. He then asked me if I would like to fill their orders, or at least a portion of them. I explained to Darrell that although I occasionally did brokerage, it was only as an accommodation to the floor brokers I stood next to, so that they would be able take a break or have lunch.The majority of the time I functioned as a trader, and I wasn’t interested in being taken out of the market, to fill some orders. Besides, I didn’t know who these customers were. Darrell went on to tell me that there was going to be a considerable amount of business, and that if I did a good job, I could have the deck. I respectfully declined his offer and Darrell walked away. It wasn’t long before I saw Darrell talking to another broker on the other side of the pit, and then another. Little did I know, that I had just made one of the smartest decisions of my life.

I had met Darrell and his wife Lisa, who doubled as his clerk, in the lounge of my clearing firm. He was a very talkative and gregarious guy, but in a used-car-salesman kind of way. He was a perennial bust-out, kicked out of numerous clearing firms at both the Merc and the Board, but now had an account where I cleared my trades. There were a lot of Darrells that hung around the Merc and Board; ego-driven dreamers that chronically blew up their trading accounts, yet always found a way to get back in the game; hanging on a little while longer before justice was inevitably meted out. A lot of them would quietly disappear, while others would get jobs on the floor, evaporating into the milieu of floor clerks never to be seen or heard from again, yet always fantasizing about making it big one day.

Every trader did it; dreamed about the big trade; fantasized about taking a shot. Chicago’s traders had their own mythical way for making this dream come true, the O’hare spread. The idea was to put on an incredibly large position, get in a cab, and head for O’hare airport. If the trade was a winner, you either returned home or got on a plane to Hawaii - if the trade was loser, you bought a one way ticket to a country that did not have an extradition agreement with the U.S. We also had a saying, “If you are going to blow out, blow out big” If your debit was too small, your clearing firm would write off the loss, and then write you off. But in the CBOT's version of “too big to fail", if you hurt your clearing firm bad enough, they would arrange a way for you to generate the income necessary, to pay them back. Apparently, Darrell had taken these fantasies to heart having already already planned to put on an O'hare spread, before he approached me in the pit that day. While I had refused his offer, he did manage to enlist 9 unwitting brokers to assist him and his partner, Tony Catalfo, in a scheme that would bring down one of the oldest clearing firms at the CBOT.

The bell rang at 7:20 AM on a Thursday morning and Tony, who had strategically placed himself in the Bond options pit, was buying up every at-the-money put he could get his hands on. Meanwhile, Darrell was putting in huge sell orders in the bonds to the 9 brokers whose help he had enlisted earlier. Tom Baldwin was on the other side of the bulk of these orders, and when the options traders started to lay off the puts they sold to Tony, with short hedges in the bond futures, panic ensued and the market had nowhere to go but down. Darrell then entered the pit himself and began to sell more bonds. In the Bond options pit, the put options were going through the roof, and Tony was beginning to take profits on his long put position. This all took place before 7:30 AM, when an economic release came out which was negative for bond prices. In a stroke of incredible luck, the market broke even more and Tony covered the balance of his position for about a 1.5 million profit, while Darrel was now short about 12,000 bond futures, and up about 5MM on his open position. The feedback loop of selling they had created was working perfectly.

Darrell had been dismissed long ago from my clearing firm, and along with Catalfo, was now clearing Stern & Co., a family run business that was founded by Lee B. Stern. Lee had made his fortune trading grains, and owned the Chicago Sting soccer franchise, a piece of the White Sox, and was one of the most respected members of CBOT. Lee rarely came onto the floor anymore, but when he did make an appearance in one of the grain pits, his actions were highly scrutinized by other traders, as a possible clue to where the market was headed.

Bad news travels fast in the futures industry and virally fast on the floor, so it did not take long for word of Zimmerman’s and Catalfo’s involvement in the bond panic, to reach Stern’s office. Lee’s son and a few of the firm’s employees rushed to the floor and quickly enlisted the help of the security guards. Zimmerman had lost his count and was standing outside of the pit when they grabbed him, while they physically pulled Catalfo out of the Bond options pit. After witnessing this melee, traders in both pits began to piece together what had happened. Tom Baldwin , who had been unsuccessfully taking the opposite side of Zimmerman’s orders, realized the sell-off had been artificially induced, and that traders would have to cover their shorts. He quickly took advantage of the situation and began to bid up the price of bonds. Bond futures and bond options prices reversed on a dime and snapped back with a vengeance.

Meanwhile, Stern’s employees, who had wrestled the trading cards out of Tony and Darrell’s hands, were frantically trying to get a handle on what was now, Stern's position. In addition to the trades that Tony and Darrell had made, were the fills of the 9 floor brokers, which had to be collected and aggregated in order to get an accurate count. It took them 2 hours before they could figure out the position, and what had been a $5MM winner, had turned into an $8.5MM loser by the time the position was liquidated. Had they been able to figure out Zimmerman’s position quicker, and not tipped off floor to what was going down, Stern could have escaped with anywhere from a small loss to a small gain. Instead, Stern had to make good for Zimmerman’s $8.5MM loss, and as a result, lost it’s clearing status after 25 years in business, and had to lay off 20 employees.

Catalfo tried to collect on his $1.5MM profit on his options position, but received a 42 month prison sentence instead.The proceeds from his trades were awarded to Stern to help offset his losses, while Stern went after the 9 filling brokers for the balance. Zimmerman hopped in a cab to the airport and got on a plane to his parents home in Canada, completing the other leg of the O’hare spread. He was eventually extradited and sentenced to 42 months for his efforts. Darrell Zimmerman came very close to pulling off his insane plan, but he let his ego and his greed get the best of him. Had he executed his plan on a smaller scale, in a more restrained manner, he might not have aroused the suspicion of his clearing firm. He had the market right where he wanted it, and had he not lost his count and tipped his hand, he might have been able to cover his position while it was still a huge winner. Whether they would have let him keep his profits is highly dubious, because Zimmerman’s sole legacy from his lunatic scheme, is the eponymously named rule, that allows clearing firms to seize the profits of any trader that attempts to take a shot at them.

Saturday, October 22, 2011

Off To A Dubious Start

As stated earlier in the week, price action warranted that a “modestly bullish discretionary bias” be adopted for equities. Long time-frame participants made the case as they finally asserted their dominance by marking up the ES, on Friday, closing it above the 200DEMA, the 10-day “mini” trading range (1085-1225), and the +2 month trading range (1070-1230), with a +90% day (charts 4&5).

For the week, the Dow was up +1.4%, scoring a fourth straight winning week. The S&P 500 gained +1.1%, but the Nasdaq Composite Index was down-1.1% for the week, along with the 2K, which was down 0.01%. Friday the trading volume total reported on the NYSE was higher, while volume was slightly lower on the Nasdaq. Advancing issues beat decliners by more than 6-1 on the NYSE and by 3-1 on the Nasdaq exchange. New 52-week highs expanded and in the process, outnumbered new 52-week lows on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq exchange 97-24.

Breadth followers (McClennan, Hulbert), investment sites (Bespoke), and perma-bulls, were quick to jump on the breakout bandwagon and herald the “confirmation of a new uptrend”, even though key earnings reports and Wednesday’s EU summit meeting developments, still pose a potential threat to the viability of the very nascent breakout.

The past few trading days saw long term breadth indicators hold onto their bullish signals (chart 1), while their short-term components were negative, implying that the market had underlying strength, but was overbought. If an overbought market refuses to decline, it is usually a sign of strenth. This typically happens early in a new bullish phase, and it appears to be what's occurring at this time. However, the bulls haven't gained complete control, and there are still some divergences present that are a cause for concern.

Most notable, are the respective negative closes of the Comp and R2K this week. Both of these indices have shared the role of “leading index” in both directions, among the four major indices (SPX,COMP, DJIA, RUT). The fact that these two leading indices closed lower on the week, belies the supposition that this latest move is indeed the beginning of a stronger intermediate-term bullish phase in the broad market (chart 8). The most bearish indicator however, has been the $VIX (chart 9), which closed below 30.00 last week, only to rally as high as ~37.00 and close above 30.00 every day, this week, which may explain why the COT report shows smart money's short position increased as they sold into the rally (chart 3).

As always, there is a case to be made for the bullish camp. There is the very bullish October, and 4th quarter seasonality associated with equities, and as was alluded to earlier, there is the possibility that Operation Twist, may indeed have the same salubrious effect on the market, that QE1 and QE2 had on equities (chart 2).

That being said, I think the market rallies from this level, but exhausts itself before ever reaching the 1260.00 level. Then we’ll see if the bulls step back in, support the market, and run it up in time for Santa to bring his annual cheer to the markets.

Friday, October 21, 2011

Stairway to Heaven or Highway to Hell

The market continues to be event driven as it awaits a resolution over the EFSF leverage issue. In the interim the market is in a holding pattern hovering just above support at it’s 50DEMA and just below resistance at it’s 200DEMA (chart1). The burning question is whether the market is consolidating above support (1190-1185) or whether the price action is distributional as a result of the market's continued inability to break the 1220-1230 level. A break lower would result in the ES testing 1170 and a break higher would result in an assault of 1260.

Unfortunately, signals are mixed. Cumulative market breadth ($ADD) and cumulative $TICK are positive, however their shorter time-frame constituents are negative, which implies that the market is simply overbought (chart 5). Breadth was mixed today, with a slight positive advantage on the NYSE and a modest negative margin registered on the NASDAQ, however the amount of new lows expanded, while the amount of new highs contracted, offering further evidence of short-term weakness, while the continued strength of the $VIX issued a clear signal of present danger, as it once again, closed above it’s 50DEMA and traded as high as 36.87 today (chart 4).

On the bullish side of the coin, market lows are usually made in the month of October, and the fourth quarter has historically been the strongest quarter for the market. Since1928, the S&P 500 has averaged a gain of 2.44% in the fourth quarter, and over the last 20 years, the index has averaged a gain of 4.57% in Q4, which is more than twice as strong as the next closest quarter. So even, if the market were to break from here, there is a high probability that it would snap right back. The yield curve is steepening once again as treasury yields rise which may be a welcome presage for the bulls, if OT’s effect on the market is similar to the effect QE1 and QE2 had in the past (chart 2). However, as with the market sell-off scenario, I would expect a near term rally to quickly exhaust itself at the aforementioned level of 1260.00.

Thursday, October 20, 2011

Opex Pump and Dump?


The bulls failed to follow through on yesterday’s comeback rally, as the event driven market ran out of steam at the 200DEMA, once again. As was stated yesterday ,“the market needed to accept above Friday's VAh @ 1215.25, and quickly make new highs with a close above the 200DEMA, in order to meet it's 1260.00 target, otherwise the double-top reversal scenario would take precedence going into opex,“ which is exactly the situation the market now finds itself in, with 1215.25 now becoming short-term resistance.

While the ES still closed well above it’s 50DEMA, and held the bottom trendline of it’s bull channel, the VIX closed above 34.00, and above it’s 50DEMA, along with the $ TICK daily, which closed below zero for the first time since the rally began on 10/04, casting doubt as to whether the nascent rally is capable of being sustained.The October VIX Futures settled at 33.15 this morning, down 57 cents from last month's settlement. This is the third month in a row that the futures expired with a value above 30. This hasn't occurred since the 2008 crash, proving once again that fear is a stronger emotion than greed, and that a break to 1170.00 is highly probable.

Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Bulls Blast Off!


The bears failed to follow through with what they began early Monday morning, allowing the bulls to regroup and maintain control. Once again, the market quickly discounted the negative news out of Europe, allowing the bulls to not only support the market, but to unceremoniously, launch it higher. Market rebounds needs a certain amount of strength showing up in the A-D numbers at the beginning of an uptrend, or else prices roll over and head back down to the level of the prior low, or even lower. The NYSE answered the call today, with close to a 90% day, on 9-1 positive breadth, and 26 new highs to go with the NASDAQ’s 24 new highs, on very good volume. And, in the process, may have answered the question on everybody’s mind the past few trading sessions. Are the bulls getting stronger, or were the bears just laying in weeds, waiting for the right opportunity to deliver maximum pain? While the question may have been answered resoundingly today, I must admit, the price action still casts a sliver of doubt in my mind.

The market now needs to accept above Friday's VAh @ 1215.25, and quickly make new highs, or the double-top reversal scenario will hang over the market going into opex. Nevertheless, from the attached chart, it is evident that the ES was still firmly ensconced in it’s recent upward trend channel. One of the best indicators of a change in the short term direction of the market in the recent choppy trading environment, has been the holding or breaking of an extant trend channel, as we witnessed this morning. Sometimes, it's best to keep things simple.

Just When You Thought It Was Safe To Buy Equities...

Last night’s rally on bullish follow-through momentum from Friday, ran out of buyers early Monday morning as the ES ran up against it’s 200 DEMA and RTH - R2. Once again, headlines out of Europe was the catalyst for another global equities sell-off, as the ES took it on the chin for 38 points (H-L) with the small caps (TF) and European indices (FESX,FDAX) leading the way down.

Liquidity was adaequate which resulted in an orderly trend-day-down which never reached waterfall status. No doubt weak longs were the target of the sell-off, which resulted in an only 9% day on the NYSE and a 17% day on the NASDAQ, with declining shares leading advancing shares 5-1 on both exchanges. Nevertheless, there were 30 new highs combined on the 2 exchanges, but also 29 new lows.

Market internals and price action still suggests that the bulls are in control, as the bulls continue to support the market on bad news, and rally the market on good news. Ranges have contracted, and liquidity is not being pulled as often as it had been, along with the recent improvement in market breadth and leadership.

While all the indicators are not bullish, the major indices are still above their 50EMAs and the VIX is still below its 50EMA, but they must quickly consolidate at current levels (1190.00), and assert their strength once again, (accept above 1220.00) if they are going to resume the uptrend and fulfill their upside potential.

Still, in the near and intermediate term, the market remains vulnerable to headline risk out of the Euro-zone, along with negative economic news at home. An $SPX close below 1170 and a $VIX close above 34 would consequently, alter my somewhat bullish view.

Sunday, October 16, 2011

Trading With A Twist




As a recent article in Bespoke pointed out, “It has been three weeks now since the Fed formally announced its $400 billion Operation Twist program on September 12th. If early indications are a sign of what's to come, however, this will be the third straight time the Fed has tried and failed to lower long-term interest rates through the Treasury market. “

Operation Twist involves selling short-term Treasuries in exchange for the same amount of longer term bonds. The policy’s intent is lower yields on long term bonds, while keeping short term rates little changed, in essence, to flatten the yield curve. A failed policy in 1961, I seriously doubt that Bernanke himself, thought that increasing the average maturity or “twisting” the Fed’s portfolio, would have any effect on the economy or rates. In reality, it was more of a PR move designed to reiterate the central bank’s policy objectives, and maintain credibility with the investing public.

While the Fed’s policy attempts have fallen short at bringing down rates and invigorating the economy, there is no denying the impact they have had on the broader market. Once again, the SPX appears to have put in a swing bottom that is highly correlated with the Fed’s actions, and once again rates are rising concomitantly. (Chart 1)

Whether intended or not, the Fed’s machinations have an effect on the markets, that can present observant traders with relevant opportunities that have a high probability of success. Operation Twist, of course, involves the simultaneous sale and purchase of both short and long-term securities, so it’s impact will be the greatest on the Treasuries’ yield curve.

Investopedia defines the yield curve as, A line that plots the interest rates, at a set point in time, of bonds having equal credit quality, but differing maturity dates. The most frequently reported yield curve compares the three-month, two-year, five-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury debt. This yield curve is used as a benchmark for other debt in the market, such as mortgage rates or bank lending rates. The curve is also used to predict changes in economic output and growth.




In futures terms , it is the spread between the yields of the same security with differing maturities, and the NOB spread is one of the most heavily traded yield curve spreads. If you expect the yield curve to to steepen, you typically want to buy the spread. If you expect the yield curve to flatten, you will want to sell the spread.

If a trader expects the yield curve to steepen, he can buy the 10 year note and sell the 30 year bond( buy the NOB). When the yield curve steepens, the 10 year Treasury cash yield will fall relative to the 30-year Treasury cash yield, and the10-Year Note futures price will rise relative to the 30-Year bond’s futures price.That is, a long position in the 10-Year Note futures will gain more than a short position in 30-Year bond futures will lose. Due to the inverse nature between price and yield in Treasuries, the yield spread will increase, but the price spread will decrease as with any bull spread.The converse is true, for a trader that is expecting the curve to flatten.

True yield curve spread filters out directional effects (i.e., changes due to parallel shifts in the yield curve) and responds only to changes in the slope of the yield curve (i.e., non-parallel shifts).The goal is to filter out directional effects and design a spread trade that will respond only to changes in the shape of the yield curve. In order to do so, NOBS are usually traded as ratio spreads, with the current ratio being 5:2, notes over bonds. This ratio matches the dollar value of a 1-bp change (DV01) in the yield of the shorter-term maturity futures position and that of the longer-term maturity futures position. A DV01 indicates approximately what one futures contract will gain or lose in dollars for every 1-bp change in yield.

It is best to trade the NOB in the direction of the prevailing trend, by buying weakness at or near support or selling strength at or near resistance, however a mean reversion strategy can be utilized in a range market. A daily chart can be used to identify the prevailing trend, and a 15 minute chart is good for execution. Since the end of July/ beginning of August, the yield curve had been flattening, so selling the NOB on rallies, was the best strategy. However, in an ironic twist of fate, yields on treasuries have rallied, and so has the yield curve, since Operation Twist was implemented on Sept. 21. Until a bottom in yield and a change in the curve is confirmed, I would consider the curve trade a trading affair. (Chart 3)

Unfortunately, if you use NinjaTrader, their platform is not conducive to spread trading, so if you want to put on a spread, you have to leg it. You will also be unable to place a stop using the spread price, so it must be done dynamically. Other platforms, i.e., TT and Cunningham, cater more to spread traders. I like the “pairs suite” indicator, along with a few others that can be found on BMT or NT, that work just as well. In addition, I overlay the PRC2 indicator on the “pairs ratio” indicator, which provides me with support/resistance and a visual of the near -term trend, and use the RSI of the spread for confirmation. I trade the spread with a 2:1 ratio, instead of the recommended 5:2, just for simplicity’s sake, but one can experiment with different ratios to achieve different deltas.

“A yield curve spread trade is a speculative trade, but it shifts the burdenof speculation from taking a position on interest rate or price direction to taking a position on what you expect the yield curve to do. This gives you an extra way to be right, for you have no concern for rate or price direction, only for yield curve steepening or flattening.” CME Group

Saturday, October 15, 2011

Bullish Breadth



While the war is certainly far from over, the bulls won the battle today, staging a late afternoon rally, after what had been a day of distributional action and indecisiveness. Retail sales rose in September by the most in seven months, however, consumer confidence cast doubt as to whether gains in spending could be sustained, as shoppers’ confidence waned. The market rallied briefly after the news, making new highs, but a short term overbought market, was unable to overcome the sell-the-new-high algorithms.The market then traded in a narrow range, under the session VWAP, unable to get above it’s opening range for most of the day. However, the market languished in a territory that was well above the previous day’s value and never below the RTH session R1, as capital flowed into risk assets and out of treasuries and the dollar.

While market breadth continued to swing wildly back and forth with the market’s volatile movements, the past few sessions has seen breadth expand to the point where breadth indicators began to elicit buy signals. According to Bespoke,“77% of S&P 500 stocks are now above their 50-day moving averages, which is the highest level seen since the April highs. Bulls have been waiting for a nice expansion in underlying breadth for confirmation of a rally, and now they seem to have it.” Today’s internals confirmed, as the NYSE put in an 83% day, with advancing shares leading the way, by almost 5-1. New highs blew away new lows on the NYSE and NASDAQ, 49-15 as techs took charge, once again. For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 541 points, or +4.9%. The S&P 500 Index gained 69 points, or +6.0%, its best week since July 2009. The Nasdaq was up 188 points, or +7.6%.

Volatility continued to be drained, as the $VIX finally broke below it’s support @ 30.00, signalling that it is now safe for any reluctant bulls, to buy. According to Rennie Yang, the $VIX has fallen 7 straight days, 37 times since 1990, and 91% of the time, the SPX was higher 2 months later. The ES has now retraced 50% of it’s move from it’s 52 week high-low, yet unlike the NQ, it has yet to trade above it’s 200DEMA at 1232.00. And while those in the bulls' camp would prefer to see a more decisive "confirmation day", with market acceptance above the 200MA as a sign of renewed institutional demand, the bulls appear to have the upper hand, holding the door open for a move to 1260.00 - which certainly suggests that a modestly bullish discretionary bias is warranted in the short term.

Wednesday, October 12, 2011


ESZ 135min
Although the ES closed up 1% today, on day 7 of the rally off the last Tuesday’s swing low, the market was wacked for 20 handles in the last hour of trade, as it approached it’s 200 DEMA, and the 6E tested it’s 50DEMA. Ironically, the market had been enjoying a very strong day, and still put up very good numbers on the day, with the NYSE enjoying close to a 90% day, on good breadth( 9-1), and new highs outpacing new lows 17-2. The NASDAQ experienced a 72% day, with advancing shares leading declining shares by 4-1, and new highs exceeding new lows 21-14.

Waning momentum finally caught up with the ES, as it came within 5 points of reaching the 1220 level which was previously identified as being an upside target, and an area of resistance. Although the market’s rally is still intact and not technically damaged, the inability of the market to stage a true follow-through-day, should quickly attract shorts. Support now looms below at 1180 and 1150. A break below 1150 would no doubt embolden the bears for a run at taking out last Tuesday’s low.

Tuesday, October 11, 2011

Crunch Time
While both the ES and the $VIX closed unched for the day, the bulls managed to keep the trade above the VWAP for the majority of the day. This was the 6th trading day since the swing low was made last Tuesday, and the first day the market didn't close higher. It was also notable for the lack of volume, which was lower than yesterday's, which was a bank holiday.

Nevertheless, The ES closed above it's 50EMA for the second consecutive day, and the $VIX , closed below it's 50EMA for 2nd straight day, also. Breadth was slightingly bullish, and as could be expected, it was an approximately 50% day on both exchanges. Of note, however, was the fact that new highs finally led new lows on the NYSE, as new lows led new highs on the NASDAQ. In total on both exchanges, new highs led new lows, 40-25.

Of greatest concern for the bulls, is the anemic volume, although some leadership appeared today, with the slight expansion in the number of stocks making new highs. A convincing FTD would confirm a continued rally, however it is most ideal for a FTD to come between day 4-7 of a new rally attempt - so time is running out.

Certainly, all the shorts who wanted to cover, have had their chance, so it is doubtful, whether there are any weak shorts left, that could continue to fuel the rally. Buying, in the form of new longs, is needed for a sustainable second leg of the rally.

Instead it is beginning to look a lot like price exhaustion. As TD said the other day, tops and bottoms are not made by selling and buying, but by an absence of buying and selling. The lack of volume the past 2 days is indicative of buying drying up, and a swing top.

Once again, the market is at a level, where it has rallied dramatically to before, and failed, just as dramatically. It appears that tomorrow (Day7), may be "crunch time" for the bulls, where a failure to rally on big volume, with emerging leadership, will spell the end.

Sunday, October 9, 2011

Good News Bulls
11/07/2011
$VIX
ESZ 60 Min
ESZ 135 Min
ES continued to trade within it’s 4 day up-channel, which had lifted off on  Turnaround Tuesday, with a 45 point rally in 45 minutes. Although the market dramatically sold off just after the New York lunch hour today, the market held the lower trend-line of the channel and a confluence of important levels (50EMA - 60 min. and the weekly pivot) @1145.00 (ESZ). Nevertheless the market did close lower, leaving a bear hook reversal on the daily chart; certainly a negative development for the bulls after having received positive news this morning from the BLS.

Declining issues led advancing issues on both the NYSE and the NASDAQ by 4 to 1 and new lows led new highs 51 to 21 on the 2 exchanges.
Relatively low volume and a lack of leadership has been characteristic of this week’s nascent rally, and large specs accordingly seized the opportunity to get slightly shorter. The closely watched $VIX closed steady, but held it’s major up-trend line, and closed above it’s 50EMA , while the NQZ traded above it’s 50EMA, but closed below it, as did the FDAX.

Time is running out for the bulls to mount a serious offensive in the form of a follow-through-day, as the market has not demonstrated strong leadership from any of it’s major indices, and the pool of weak shorts, yet to pay up, is quickly drying up. The past week’s short covering rally was due in part, to the fact that all the bad news concerning Europe had been fully priced into the market. However, it now feels that all the good news has been fully discounted by the market, and all that is left is the actual collapse of the banking system.

Nevertheless, if the market were to rally, the next area of resistance is ~1180.00 -1184.00 and if the market were able to breach that level, it could melt up to 1220.00, however such a scenario seems unrealistic. The governments and central banks in Europe continue to pour money into the financial system in order to forestall the European Banking crisis, which no doubt, fuels inflationary expectations, which includes equity prices. This reaction probably contributed to last week’s global equity rally, but will certainly not be able to sustain any kind of a meaningful rally. Re-emerging negative headlines out of Europe, is more likely to occur, and a failure from these levels would have very bearish implications. Near term targets are 1130.00, 1115.00, 1100.00, intermediate term target of 1050.00 basis the SPX, and longer term targets of 980, and eventually, below the March 2009 low of 666.

Sunday, October 2, 2011


Liquidity On, Liquidity Off

For those of you that think that the market's current price action and attendant volatility is a direct result of headline risk out of Europe, or general economic uncertainty, you might want to think twice. The 3 day break that began with the market topping out at ~1190.00 on Tuesday afternoon, culminating in this afternoon's swing bottom at ~1133.50, most certainly belies that assumption.

Please note how the market was run up each of the 3 ETH sessions and how the market was taken down each of the 3 RTH sessions. What's especially interesting about this pattern is the way in which this strategy is implemented.

Notice how the relative volume drops off Wednesday and Thursday right before the market sells off, and continues to remain low during the duration of the move. This demonstrates how the algos pull liquidity on the down moves in order to allow the market to fall.

It is this pulling and adding of liquidity that is the major cause of the recent increase in volatility. By observing these patterns of on-again/off-again liquidity states,, along with price action patterns, one can gain a much better understanding of how the market actually operates.
 PIIGS in a Poke?




While country after country in Europe is either in the midst of a debt crisis, or on the verge of slipping into one, European stocks posted their largest weekly gain in 14 months. Positive news out of the U.S. and Germany did nothing to stem the selling in U.S. equity markets, however, Germany’s pledged support for an euro-area rescue fund, helped the European markets pare quarterly losses.

While the debt crisis in Europe still appears to be far from resolved, the charts of the FESX and FDAX, may be pricing in some kind of resolution or stop-gap. While both indices had shown relative weakness to the SPX, having already taken out their early August lows, hedging activity in an attempt to circumvent the European short selling ban, may have been the cause. For now, the FESX and FDAX have put in double bottoms and are forming bullish falling wedges, although the volume has been relatively low and liquidity relatively thin. The US. dollar meanwhile has sold off from it’s August highs, which may suggest that Euro-zone money that had previously sought safety in in the U.S., is being repatriated to Europe.

The main source of the world's fears these days has been found in the Euro-zone sovereign debt crisis, so it will be interesting to watch the European markets next week, for further signs of real strength. It just may be that the European market "got ahead" of itself due to the hedge activity, and the market is now being run up to shake the weak shorts, trap some new longs, and add to existing shorts.

In either case, I’m sure the domestic bears will have their eyes fixed on the PIIGS.

Take Me by My Little Hand and Go Like This


While the purpose of the Fed's Operation Twist program is to lower long term interest rates, the reality is that the only long-term rates that are falling are Treasury rates. Long term bonds are still in an uptrend. and although Treasury yields are falling, spreads on high yield debt are rising at just as fast, if not at a faster rate.

The high yields are sending a message that risk to the economy and the stock market remains above normal, as the high yield funds are now breaking below their early August lows, (JNK with HYG on the verge). Ironically, spreads had been essentially range bound until Operation Twist was formally announced; it was then that yields on high yield debt actually broke out of their recent range and made new highs. This is especially bearish when you consider we are entering the strongest performing time of the year for bonds.

Saturday, September 24, 2011

Cryoport Technical Update

Price Targets for CYRX
A break below ~1.09 would indicate a price target between .60 and .70 
A rally, which seems highly unlikely based upon price action, has an upside target above $2.00





Sunday, September 4, 2011

FLOORED!

When I first began my career, an aspiring trader could not lease a seat on the exchange. A membership on the exchange had to be purchased, which created a very large barrier to entry into the business. Eventually, the exchanges spun off associate memberships that were priced at a substantial discount to the “full” memberships, but only allowed you to trade the less liquid contracts. My first membership was an AM membership on the CME in 1976, which cost me $20,000 and allowed me to trade lumber and eggs. While I had no desire to trade either of these contracts, the membership granted me access to the floor, and allowed me to partake in member commission rates. However, instead of physically trading in either of these pits, I chose to trade bellies and cattle from a desk on the floor, running my own orders into the pit, and keeping track of the market on my hand made point-and-figure charts. When the price of my seat quickly doubled, I sold it and made the jump to the CBOT, where I leased a seat for $3200 per month from Bill Eckhardt, co-founder of the Turtles.

The CME and the CBOT reflected the diversity of Chicago. They were the same animal, but completely different breeds. The Merc was the young upstart exchange made up of North-suburban Jews and West-side Italians wearing $300 slacks, diamond rings and gold Rolexes. They drove Rolls Royces and Ferraris, got high and partied with hookers, and rooted for the Cubs. The Board of Trade was the venerable old exchange comprised of Southside Irish who drove Lincolns and Cadillacs, smoked stogies and drank scotch at 10:30 in the morning, and went to White Sox games. Members of the Merc had family money and bought their way onto the exchange, while members of the Board had been there from the beginning or had their memberships passed down to them. The exchanges were only blocks apart, but culturally they were miles apart. Yet the members of the exchanges had one thing in common, and that was their entrepreneurial lust.

I had always wanted to trade soybeans, because of their volatility and my belief that they were the perfect vehicle for a technical trader. Having never traded in a futures pit before, I was under the impression that floor traders were exactly what their name implied - traders. In reality, they were actually market makers. The market makers’ alleged raison d’etre was to make a two sided market for the brokers, taking the other side of both retail and institutional orders. Without the local independent trader, there would not have been sufficient liquidity to facilitate the customer order flow. The “real” traders, either put their orders in with floor brokers, or came into the pit, only when they were putting on or taking off their positions.

Buying or leasing a membership on the exchange allowed the member trader: access to the floor and the pits, drastically reduced commissions with a yearly cap, the ability to buy-the-bid and sell -the-offer, and to varying degrees, a look at the order flow. Of course, this created an extreme advantage for the local trader and created a very un-level playing field. But this was quickly rationalized as benefits owed to the locals, for taking the risk of providing liquidity, and aiding in the process of price discovery and risk transference.

Where you stood and whom you stood next to, had more to do with how much much money you made, than how good of a trader or market maker you were. Groups of traders congregated around various brokers (order fillers) forming little cliques within the pit, yet the pit as a whole, still functioned as an efficient marketplace. Customer orders flowed form outside the exchange into the pits, where a market was made and fair value was determined through the process of price discovery, price information then flowed back out from the exchange, and back to the customers. But, not before the locals had a chance to "pick-off" off the customers' orders.

In theory, all trading was to be executed by open outcry, and all customer orders were to be kept secret until they were executed. In practice this was seldom the case. While the ball belonged to the brokers, they needed the locals to take the other side of their orders. The local needed the brokers to get the “edge “ on their trades and information about the order flow. It was this interdependence that forced a bond of trust and a doctrine of integrity between the locals and brokers. While it both empowered and enriched the pit’s inhabitants, it was also the dominant reason why the pits functioned so efficiently.

In general, there were two kinds of orders that came into the pits - retail and commercial. There was a relatively steady flow of retail orders throughout the day, while the hedgers and funds came in less frequently, albeit at the same time, in the same direction. By design, I always stood next to a broker with a retail order deck. Obviously, you didn’t want to be on the other side of a big institutional orders - you wanted to be in front of them. Conversely, you wanted to be on the other side of the retail orders, especially stops, as they were more likely to be wrong.

By necessity, I quickly made the transition, from what I had always thought was a trader, to market-maker. I made enough money trading beans, to buy a membership that allowed me to trade the relatively new financial futures contracts, and made the move to the Bonds. The business in the Bond pit was just beginning to grow, and was soon to explode exponentially into the busiest and most volatile futures pit in the world. The bonds were the beans on steroids. The transition to the bond pit was like leaving the PGA circuit, strapping on a pair of skates, and joining the NHL. In the bean pit, traders actually said “thank you” after a trade. In the bonds, it was more likely to be “ f**k you”.

When 30yr bonds first began trading on the floor of the CBOT, no one could envision how successful the new contract would become. The pit was situated in a small annex connected to the main trading floor referred to as the South room, summarily placed there as an afterthought, adjacent to the members bathroom. To encourage traders to make a market in this new contract, a financial futures membership was created that could be purchased or leased at a relatively affordable price, which meant the pit was populated by a very young and inexperienced crowd.

The bond pit might as well had been in another country and not in the South room, because the grain traders never ventured into this foreign land. Part of the reason was logistics - there was not any room in the pit, and the existing “spots” that each trader had laid claim to, were defended as if the trader’s survival depended on it. Bond pit real estate became so coveted that traders would arrive at the exchange 3-4 hours before the market opened, just to place one of their trading cards on the floor of the pit, in order to reserve a spot.

The success of the 30 year and the financial futures complex created the need for more trading space, and in response the exchange built an addition contiguous to the CBOT building. The grain pits moved onto the new trading floor, while the financial futures complex moved into the old grain room. The bond traders were finally able to spread their wings, as they relocated to the old soybean pit.The move to bigger quarters couldn’t have come at a more opportune time. It was 1983 and the U.S. economy was plagued by double digit inflation. Fed chairman Volker was determined to slow the rate of growth of the money supply and dramatically raised interest rates. The fed funds rate which was about 11% a few years earlier, rose to 20%. The prime rate and short term rates skyrocketed to 21.5% and the long bond was yielding around 14%. The demand for price protection in the bond market had reached critical mass, and the bond futures contract provided dealers with the optimal vehicle to hedge their risk.

The word quickly spread in the financial world, and in the Chicago neighborhoods. The bond pit was the last bastion of pure capitalism and entrepreneurship, and a place where you didn’t need a college degree or an MBA as a prerequisite for entry. It was also a place where you could make a small fortune. While the memberships had appreciated almost 10X, leases were still relatively affordable.The “golden dream” was still available to anyone who could pay the price of admission, which resulted in a continuous flow of new traders, in and out of the pit.

The traders who had begun their careers in the South room were among the pioneers of financial futures. They had taken a chance, and had ventured into a new, unknown territory and were now like modern day gold miners who had struck it rich. A great many of them were now multimillionaires, and this fact was not lost on the “full members” who were still trading the relatively low volume, low volatility, grain contracts.

The grain traders wanted a piece of the pie, but the bond traders felt that the bonds belonged to them. They were the ones who had taken the fledgling bond contract from nothing and developed it into the largest futures contract in the world, and they weren't going to let an old bunch of grain traders take that away from them. The grain traders however, felt it was their exchange; after all they were full members, and even though the financial complex was generating more revenue than the grain complex, the majority of the bond traders were only associate members.

Nevertheless, many a grain trader had attempted to grab a spot in the bond pit, only to fail in their attempt, and return back to the grain room with their tail between their legs. The grain traders’ answer came in the form of 40 y.o. George Edward Seals; the 6’3”- 260lb ex-offensive/defensive lineman for the Washington Redskins, Kansas City Chiefs, and the Chicago Bears. I had stood next to George in the bean pit, in my early days at the Board, and found him to be one of the most polite and even tempered guys in the pit, yet there was no denying that his appearance was rather intimidating. After all, this guy played with Dick Butkus, the toughest and most feared Bear of all time.

George walked into the bond pit one afternoon, after the grains closed, determined to squeeze into a spot - which he did. However, once firmly ensconced in his space, he soon found out how different the bond pit was from the bean pit. The bean pit was not only a boy’s club, but it was a gentleman’s club. In the beans, orders were split-up among the locals in a fair and equitable manner, and the brokers didn’t jam you with size you couldn't handle. The guys in the bean pit wanted to see the guy standing next to him make money, and would actually let you out if you were stuck, and they were the right way. If you wanted to trade with the brokers in the bond pit on a consistent basis, you had to take whatever they gave you. If you turned them down, they would not trade with you again. Trading bonds entailed a great deal of risk, and required it’s participants to readily adapt to an intense local environment if they were to survive. George didn’t even last to the end of the week, and a grain trader never tried securing a spot in the bond pit again.

The pit would best be compared to a locker room in both odor and mentality and was not the place for sensitive types. In my first week in the bond pit, I contracted conjunctivitis from getting spit on so often, and was called a “kike”. The few women who ventured into the bond pit did not last very long, although the attrition rate for men was not much less. It was often said, that the temporal nature of trading was the reason there were revolving doors on the CBOT building. It was estimated that there were as many as 700 traders in the bond pit on unemployment Fridays. We were so packed into the pit on those days, that you could lift your feet off the ground and remain upright in place. Even the act of carding your trades was difficult, so imagine trying to concentrate and trade under these conditions.

The first Friday of the month, when the employment statistics are released by the BLS, was either a trader’s favorite day of the month or their least favorite day. Inevitably, it was your best or worst day that month. For the brokers in the bond pit, it was overwhelmingly their most dreaded and feared day. While the pit’s volume was almost guaranteed to be the largest of the month, the attendant volatility the report generated, disproportionately increased a broker’s risk. Many a broker’s career was ended on “unenjoyment” Friday, while there were also many personal best and personal worst P&Ls, experienced by traders on that day.

Probably the biggest loss I personally witnessed a trader incur in the bond pit, was shortly after a payroll number was released. Tom Baldwin, the largest trader in the pit, and arguably one of the largest traders in the world at the time, took a 5000 contract long position into the number. In a matter of seconds, the bonds were limit down in the front month, and Baldwin was looking at a $10 MM loss. As he tried to spread out of his position in the second month, representatives from the clearing association were literally pulling him out of the pit, so that he could write them a check to cover his losses - which Tom reluctantly did, quickly returning to the pit to continue trading out of his position.

In the bond pit, size mattered - not physical, but the quantity you traded. The bigger you traded, the better your spot. The better your spot, the more money you could make. The big traders and the big brokers all stood on the top step of the pit, and traded across the pit with other top step traders and brokers. The rest of the pit was comprised of “pits-within-the-pit” that (like the bean pit) synergistically functioned as a whole. Once again, I stood next to a retail broker, and once again the relationship between local and broker was quid pro quo. The more a local helps a broker fill his orders, the more edges the local gets on trades. If a broker makes a mistake that costs him money, and the local “eats” his error, the local will usually get it back two-fold.

While trading on the floor, commissions and execution slippage were not issues, so you could trade as much as you liked. In addition, you could “feel” and see what was happening. I could easily tell if the pit was long or short, and I could clearly determine what the commission houses were doing, and if there was any institutional buying or selling. If I wanted to know where there was support or resistance or where the stops were, all I had to do was ask the broker standing next to me. If he received a large market order to either buy or sell, I could easily step in front of it, and then lean or get out against his order.

Regardless of these advantages and other edges the local enjoyed, if one was not disciplined and practiced good money management, one could still get his ass handed to him. It still boiled down to limiting your losses, pressing your winners, and adding to your winners. Scalping was merely a numbers game. If you traded a large enough sample, let’s say a 1000 a side on the day, and you scratched half of them, lost a tic on 150 of them and made 1-3 tics on the remaining 350, you could easily make $15000.00 after commissions and exchange fees, yet this would have still placed you, in only one of the mid to lower P&L quintiles in the pit.

Steve L.'s last job before making his way to the bond pit was bagging groceries at Jewel. In many ways, Steve was the archetypal bond trader. He was a tall, athletic, Southsider, stuck in a low paying, dead end job, who had a friend or relative who was making a lot of money, at one of the exchanges. He did not have a college degree, nor any prior knowledge of the bond market, trading, or technical analysis. Yet, he was made for the bond pit. Steve was a gregarious person who quickly fit in with the other traders and brokers in the pit, and along with his physicality and willingness to “take size”, it allowed him to scale his success in a dramatic fashion. He quickly grew from a 1-10 lot trader, to one of the biggest traders in the pit, routinely trading 1000-5000 contracts at time, and experiencing seven figure intra-day equity swings.

After suffering a serious hit one day, a visibly upset Steve was sitting on the top step of the pit after the close, having just learned from his clerk, what his P&L was for the day. The legendary Charlie D, who was an even a larger trader than Steve, happened to walk by and ask Steve’s clerk why Steve was so dejected. The clerk shared Steve’s P&L with Charlie who was then overheard to sarcastically say, “ F++k, I thought he could handle dropping 2Mil, better than that!”

Superstition gave rise to a very ritualistic behavior among traders. If a trader suffered a bad day he would look to avoid certain “abstract behavior” or “random physical” items that he had identified or imagined, would have caused or contributed to his bad luck. Conversely, if a trader had a good day, he would look to recapture, repeat and reinforce, the events that led up to his good fortune, and assign significance to certain items he felt contributed to his success, in order to preserve and perpetuate his luck.

If a trader was running late one morning, and neglected to shave and then had a good day, the odds were that he was now growing a beard, and just perhaps his boxers weren’t making it to the laundry hamper for a while. Certainly he wasn’t getting rid of the pen he used to card his trades that day, nor was the tie he wore that day coming off his neck anytime soon. Most likely he was going to park in the exact same spot the next day, follow the same route into the building, and walk into the pit the very same way he did on that lucky day.

But most important of all in this perverse protocol, and the place where the preciseness of your behavior mattered the most, was the veritable “womb” of the CBOT - the members bathroom. It was the trader’s sanctuary, a place where you could get away from it all, and find some peace and quiet, if only for a "fleeting" moment. It was of paramount importance you realized where you had sat, on any given trading day. If you had a bad day, the stall you used that day was to be avoided at all cost until further notice. If you were lucky enough to have “killed ‘em” that day, it was imperative that you claimed “squatter's” rights to that stall in perpetuity. If it meant that you had to wait for the third stall from the end on the North bank of johns because it was occupied, and you missed your window or the opening bell, then this was the price you were going to have to pay.

I had begun my career aspiring to become an astute, independent thinking trader, yet had somehow devolved into this momentum chasing, blue collar, bond gladiator. I had morphed into a predatory algorithm programmed to take advantage of my knowledge of, and access to, the customer order flow, and trade in front and all around it. This was in fact, the real and accurate description of a floor trader. Yet somehow, I felt lucky that I had been tenacious enough to secure and hold onto, a valuable piece of bond pit real estate for the viable duration of the contract.

Futures exchanges had sprung up to fill a need for producers to hedge their risk, but it had become questionable if a genuine service was being provided, or if the exchanges and traders were just redistributing the wealth for the benefit of themselves. Not that I was complaining mind you, because I was making an inordinate amount of “easy” money. But like any inhabitant of any welfare state, I had become content, and was not prepared for the inevitable move to screen based trading. I underestimated the disconnect between the floor and the screen and it wasn’t until I accepted the reality that I didn’t know anything about electronic trading, was I able to begin to learn how to trade again. Everything I knew as pit trader had to be eliminated from my mind as I began anew, tabula rasa.

The majority of successful floor traders could not transfer their human, pit based “skill set” onto a human-less, computer screen. Being honest with myself and letting go of what had previously worked for me, and had been responsible for my success in the past, was the most difficult part - but it was a start. It was the greatest psychological hurdle I had to overcome on the road back to becoming a successful trader. However, it was a necessary prerequisite if I wanted to provide myself with the best chance for success. In the final analysis, electronic trading has made me a smarter and better trader. No longer playing with the "house edge", it has forced me to relearn my craft, adapt, and re-invent myself. And, it is in the ways, in which we adapt to change, that ultimately defines our success.