TRADESTRONG MANAGEMENT: MARKET ANALYSIS & COMMENTARY

Wednesday, April 6, 2011

MARKET ANALYSIS & COMMENTARY

WEDNESDAY - APRIL 6, 2011 - MARKET ANALYSIS & COMMENTARY

Points: 37,905, Level: 100, Forum Activity: 33%

ES came within 2 ticks of reaching the 1337.00 target that I had been looking for since last Friday, and as anticipated, sold off early in the day filling the day gap to the tick at yesterday’s low of 1327.00. The market then staged a 7 point afternoon rally which tested the low of the opening range, only to sell off after the end of the cash trade to close in the lower half of the day’s range. Bonds were destroyed, as was the bearish sentiment in equities that I highlighted last night. In the latest Investor’s Intelligence survey, bears declined by 32% from 23.1% to 15.7%. As was mentioned in the Bespoke article, "Going back to 1975, there have now been just 16 other periods where bearish sentiment declined by more than 30% in a single week." The chart below illustrates the S&P’s performance following these large drops in bearish sentiment the past 11 times they occurred. The average performance over a 1-10 week period was -0.92% to -2.07%. I have also included a chart of the market leading TF to demonstrate a confluence of Fibonacci levels at the 860.00 level. Along with the 61.80 Fib extension that is shown in the chart, is an even more important 1.27 Fib extension, from the January lows to the February highs to the March lows, that comes in at 860.00 also. However, in direct opposition to the possible-market-top theory, is a chart of the 6J that shows a dramatically falling yen, which should insure the yen-carry-trade remains strong and further funding for the U.S. equities rally will continue. That being said, earnings season begins next week and it is still very early in the month of what is a seasonally bullish month. Therefore, there is still plenty of time for the bulls to assert their dominance. If indeed, this is not the top, then based on today’s price action I would expect a quick flush of the weak longs down to at least the weekly pivot @1320.00 if not all the way down to the low 1300’s, followed by an immediate bull reversal. 1300.00 should be the last line of defense for the bulls.

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Top Ten Reasons I'm Ready To Leave My Home Office

10) I want to hire a "hot" assistant, but my wife won't let me.
9) My neighbors think I'm a drug dealer.
8) Oprah is retiring.
7) The pizza delivery boy is becoming overly friendly.
6) I haven't showered, shaved, gotten out of my pajamas, or left the house, in a week.
5) Networking to me, is talking to my 3 year old son.
4) My wife thinks I need to get a "real" job.
3) When I take a break, I throw in a load of wash.
2) All I hear is... " Since you're home all day anyway, can you just do this...?"
1) I feel like I "live" at the office... Wait, I do !!!

Disclaimer

Opinions expressed in Market Matters are just that, and are subject to change without notice. Opinions are based on historical research and data believed to be accurate, but there is no guarantee that present or future results will be profitable. Investing in the financial markets entails risk, and past performance does not guarantee future performance. The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. When publishing a post, I may or may not have a position in the market, or may or may not be contemplating taking a position in the market. TRADESTRONG and it's management are a discretionary trading group and responds to the markets' changing structure in a dynamic fashion. Any and all information included in any post of Market Matters should not be construed as a recommendation to engage in any transaction involving either the purchase or sale of a futures contract or option thereof. The risk of loss in trading futures or options can be substantial, and each investor should carefully consider the inherent risks of such an endeavor, and only risk capital they can afford to lose.

January Rally In “Effect” But Not Firing On All Cylinders

The market was able to take advantage of annual New Year optimism and break out to the upside. For the week the DJIA gained 1.2%, the NASDAQ rose 2.7%, and the S&P 500 tacked on 1.6%, thanks largely to big gains on the first trading day of the year, and the perceived seasonality of the “January Effect.”

Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. Market breadth has been positive, but not strong, and the volatility indices ($VIX and $VXO) have been in bullish downtrends for some time, as those trends persist.

The markets began the new year where they left off with somewhat better domestic economic news, tempered by S&P's threat to downgrade the sovereign ratings of leading euro zone nations, especially France. Europe’s problems continue to weigh heavily on domestic markets and have curtailed greater risk appetite in our market. There were more reminders of weakness in Italy and Spain, as yields on the 10-year debt of both nations remained elevated and credit spreads widened with German debt.

Investor sentiment remains high. According to Bespoke, ”With a strong finish to 2011 and now a strong start to 2012, individual investors are starting to turn bullish again. According to the weekly sentiment survey from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), bullish sentiment is now at 48.88%, which is the highest level since early February. Bearish sentiment dropped to 17.16% which is the lowest level since December 2010.” While not at disturbingly high bullish levels or extraordinarily low bearish levels, sentiment does seem to be frothy.

It is important to note there were also rumors that the White House was planning a large-scale mortgage refinance plan, which was later denied. These rumors of a massive mortgage refinancing fiscal stimulus fueled the surge in the ES (intra-day) yesterday and the decline after the close. This morning, a beat on both the payrolls number and household survey of the Employment Situation facilitated a quick rise to 1282.25, followed by a quick failure and a subsequent drop to 1268.00. Notably, this leaves two failed rally attempts and a double-top with the major interim high from October 27, 2011. Long candlestick tails (wicks) on big news is a contrarian signal, and the bulls' failure to push through and close above this level may foster a short term correction.

Of course, the biggest bearish divergences and the cause for the greatest concerns for the health of the current rally come from Europe. The euro hit a 16 month low against the dollar (EUR/USD), the lowest close since 09/10/2010 and most certainly is creating a drag on the U.S. markets. European credit spreads continue to widen, and the FESX continues to make lower highs and has been unable to trade above it’s 200 DEMA, since failing from from that level on 10/27/2011.